Taking the Plunge
I can see a few more posts coming up about the paring of the NPC.
For what it’s worth, i can’t see how the NPC can avoid dropping the four teams because the money just ain’t there.
The only possibility of 14 teams working would be as an amateur competition and we all know that won’t work.
Let’s no forget that while Northland threatened every possible legal action to avoid the drop, they also agreed that the competition could only sustain 10 teams. Says it all for rugby administrators really.
At some stage, the NZRFU are going to have to give four teams the chop so let’s try and work out who they will be. As we all know, it’s not performance that counts!
For starters, the Super 14 franchise bases will be safe – so that ring fences Auckland, Waikato, Wellington, Canterbury and Otago. For the record, i see no justification for Otago retaining a S14 franchise but that’s another story and argument.
Taranaki have enough going for them to be considered safe. Hawke’s Bay’s success over the last couple of years should likewise have done enough.
So there’s seven who won’t be voted off the island to start with.
Let’s start from the other end.
The basket cases have to go – so that’s Counties-Manakau goneburger and almost certainly Northland (unless Peters threatens the mother of all legal cases). It does help that both Counties and Northland are at the bottom of the table.
The next team up in 11th place is Manawatu. They have cool fans (what gives with the buckets??), a lot of local support, and the Cruden factor. But that most likely won’t be enough to save their butt.
That leaves the following (with the current ranking going into week 10):
- Southland – 2nd
- Bay of Plenty – 4th
- Tasman – 5th
- North Harbour – 12th
On performance, you’d really have to save Harbour deserve to go down but I seriously doubt the NZRFU has the balls (if they do, they will be adidas).
Southland and Bay of Plenty have performed credibly over multiple seasons while I suspect Tasman will pay the penalty for their financial meltdown last year. That will of course create another problem with the almost certain dissolution of the Tasman union back to the traditional Nelson Bays and Marlborough which should at least please the flat earthers at Save Our Teams.
No surprises but my four to get voted off the island would be:
- Counties-Manakau
- Northland
- Manawatu
- Tasman